The Overconfidence Game

Early in my career, I’d often mistake visible confidence for knowledge.
I’d think to myself, “Wow, that guy is really certain. He MUST know what he’s talking about.”

In reality, confidence and thoughtfulness are often inversely proportional. For most issues, the better your grasp of the details and underlying nuances, the harder it is to be certain about anything – and the easier it is to recognize that.

Overconfidence from others is best matched by a healthy dose of skepticism.

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